Short answer: most ORB rulesets place the stop at the opposite side of the opening range or at the range midpoint, and the target at a fixed multiple of risk (1.5R–2R) or a projection of the range height from the breakout level. Which pair works depends on how wide the range is, so the stop and target have to be chosen together and tested together.
This guide walks through each option with the math, so you can see what win rate each combination needs to break even.
The Terms Used Here
- ORH / ORL — opening range high and low (for a 15-minute ORB on U.S. stocks, the high and low from 9:30 to 9:45 AM ET).
- Range height — ORH minus ORL.
- R — the distance from entry to stop. A 2R target is twice that distance in profit.
All examples use one hypothetical long setup:
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| ORH | $441.00 |
| ORL | $440.00 |
| Range height | $1.00 |
| Midpoint | $440.50 |
| Entry (first 5-minute close above ORH) | $441.10 |
Four Places to Put the ORB Stop Loss
| Stop placement | Stop price | Risk per share | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opposite side of range (ORL minus a buffer) | $439.95 | $1.15 | Survives a deep retest, but large risk means smaller size and a far target |
| Range midpoint | $440.50 | $0.60 | The common middle ground; a return to mid-range usually means the breakout failed |
| Breakout candle low | $440.80 | $0.30 | Tight risk and big R-multiples, but normal retests stop you out often |
| ATR-based (e.g. 1.5× 5-minute ATR below entry) | varies | varies | Adapts to volatility; needs a live ATR value at entry |
Opposite side of the range
The classic ORB stop. The logic is simple: if price travels all the way from ORH back through ORL, the breakout thesis is dead. The problem is size. On wide-range days the stop can be larger than the move you are trying to catch, so this stop pairs best with narrow ranges.
Range midpoint
A breakout that falls back to the middle of the range has lost most of its momentum. The midpoint stop roughly halves risk compared to the opposite-side stop, and it is the default in our beginner guide and SPY/QQQ playbook.
Breakout candle low
The tightest option. It produces attractive R-multiples on paper, but opening breakouts very often retest the ORH before continuing. If you use this stop, expect a lower win rate and test it against the pullback entry, which waits for that retest instead of fighting it.
ATR-based
A multiple of the Average True Range sets the stop by current volatility instead of the range. It is useful on instruments where the opening range varies a lot from day to day, such as NQ futures. Pick one ATR length and multiplier before testing and do not tune them after the fact.
Always add a buffer. Stops placed exactly on ORL or the midpoint sit where many other traders’ stops sit. A few cents on stocks, or a few ticks on futures, keeps you out of the most obvious sweep.
Three Ways to Set the ORB Profit Target
1. Fixed R-multiple
Take profit at a set multiple of risk. With the midpoint stop above ($0.60 risk):
- 1.5R target = $441.10 + $0.90 = $442.00
- 2R target = $441.10 + $1.20 = $442.30
Fixed R targets make results easy to measure and compare.
2. Range-height projection (measured move)
Project the range height from the breakout level: ORH + 1× range = $441.00 + $1.00 = $442.00. Some traders also use 2× the range as a second target.
The catch: the projection ignores where your stop is. Here is the same $442.00 target with two different stops:
| Stop | Risk | Reward to $442.00 | R-multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midpoint ($440.50) | $0.60 | $0.90 | 1.5R |
| ORL buffer ($439.95) | $1.15 | $0.90 | 0.78R |
The second pairing needs to win more than half the time just to break even. That is why stops and targets must be chosen as a pair.
3. Structure targets and time stops
Instead of a fixed number, exit at a level the market already respects: prior day high or low, pre-market high, or a VWAP extension. Combine any target with a time stop. If the trade has not worked by 10:30–11:00 AM ET, the opening momentum has usually faded, so close it.
Break-Even Win Rate for Each R:R
Before costs, a strategy with an average win of R and an average loss of 1 breaks even at:
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R)
| Reward : Risk | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% |
Commissions and slippage push these numbers up. Tight stops suffer most, because the same few cents of slippage are a larger share of a small R. There is no universal ORB win rate, so compare these thresholds with your own backtest results rather than numbers quoted online.
Stop and Target Examples for NQ and MNQ Futures
Futures use points and ticks instead of cents. MNQ is worth $2 per index point and NQ $20 per point.
Hypothetical 15-minute range of 60 points, long entry on a close above ORH:
| Parameter | Points | MNQ (per contract) | NQ (per contract) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop: midpoint + 2-point buffer | 32 | $64 | $640 |
| Target: 2R | 64 | $128 | $1,280 |
With a $25,000 account risking 1% ($250) per trade, that is 3 MNQ contracts ($192 at risk) and no NQ. See position sizing for the formula and the NQ/MNQ playbook for range-width filters.
What If Price Stays Inside the Opening Range?
Then there is no ORB trade. Set a cutoff time (commonly 10:30 or 11:00 AM ET). If neither side breaks with a confirmed close by then, the session is range-bound and belongs to other setups such as VWAP mean reversion. A breakout that arrives late in the day is a different trade with different statistics, so do not count it in ORB results.
Moving the Stop After Entry
- Breakeven after 1R: cuts losing trades, but also knocks out trades that retest and then reach 2R. It usually lowers win rate on 2R targets.
- Partial exit: take half at 1R and trail the rest under VWAP or the prior 5-minute low. This smooths the equity curve at the cost of some upside.
- Trailing only: suits trend days but gives back more on reversal days.
Pick one management rule, test it on at least 50–100 trades, and compare it with the plain fixed-target version before switching.
Quick Checklist
- Mark ORH, ORL, range height, and midpoint at the end of the range.
- Choose the stop type before the session and add a buffer.
- Calculate R and the target price before entry, not after.
- Size the position so one stop-out equals your fixed risk (for example 1%).
- Set the time stop and the no-trade cutoff.
- Log every trade’s R result so the break-even math can be checked against real data.
Practice these placements in the interactive ORB simulator, and read the false breakout guide to filter setups before risk is ever on.
Educational content only, not financial advice. All prices above are hypothetical examples.